Ulster Unionist Peer Lord Empey has warned against Unionists agreeing to support Sinn Fein’s call for a Border poll on the future constitutional arrangements of Northern Ireland.  

Lord Empey said:

“I asked the Government whether they have any plans to hold a referendum in Northern Ireland on future constitutional arrangements and if so, what criteria they will apply on considering whether a referendum is required.”

The Government answered the first part of my question informing me that they have no plans to hold a referendum in Northern Ireland on future constitutional arrangements, but made no reference to the second part regarding the criteria they would apply and I have tabled a further question seeking this information.

With regard to the issue of a Border poll, I have to say that I think the DUP are treading on dangerous ground if they were to back a Sinn Fein call for a referendum.

There is an important strategic issue here; while Ulster Unionists fear no border poll, there is no evidence that the Secretary of State has any legal justification for calling one. Under the Belfast Agreement the Secretary of State can only call such a poll '...if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that NI should cease to be part of the UK and form part of a United Ireland.' ie there would need to be evidence that people in Northern Ireland were likely to be of the view that we should leave the UK and form part of the Republic. Currently there is no evidence of this with opinion polls demonstrating the exact opposite and election results giving no indication of such an outcome.

 Whilst I have no doubt that a very strong pro-Union majority would emerge from any Border poll – and even Gerry Adams knows this - it would almost inevitably set the meter running and encourage Sinn Fein to demand one every seven years and mean that Northern Ireland would be permanently in border poll mode.

If this process were set in train, it would give Sinn Fein a permanent opportunity to grandstand and put the constitutional issue front and centre forever.

This would have a destabilising effect on politics in Northern Ireland and deflect attention and effort away from issues such as the economy, the health service and education. It is my contention that these are the areas on which we should be focusing rather than indulge Sinn Fein in tilting at the Windmills of a United Ireland.”

The Belfast Agreement gives security to unionists on their constitutional future as all they have to do to retain it, is turn out at election time and vote for Unionists. If the electorate ceases to support unionists at elections, then, and only then, can Sinn Fein reasonably say that the evidence is that support for a united Ireland is growing while support for the Union is waning.

With that in mind, people need reminding that a vote for Alliance reduces the number of people deemed to be supporting the Union as Alliance is clearly not a unionist party as their decision re the flying of the Flag at Belfast City Hall demonstrates. Each person who votes Alliance, but who wishes to maintain the Union, is removing themselves from the pro-Union count thus endangering the Constitutional position.”